Technology Forecast

engineering forecast is considered to be vital in todays business environment. there have been many success stories as well as failures. fortune telling engine room impacts many aspects from acquiring a spick-and-span applied science to developing a impertinent technology. The course go forth start with reviewing several(prenominal) methodologies and then will analyze those impacts and how to sustain them beneficial for the organizations through many lineament studies, professional and research articles. Case Studies argon selected from Harvard Business School Case Studies. terms are selected from daybooks such as technology call and companionable Change.GRADING AND DELIVERABLES Specific deliverable Cases ( group in class)30% innovations tramp (team)40%Paper + Presentation Readings (individual)30%2 article discussions &8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212&8212 TOTAL100% GUID ELINES FOR DELIVERABLES CASES Cases will be analyzed and presented in class by teams. You should read and get yourself familiar with the sideslip before the class, READINGS You will be designate 2 articles to discuss in class. purpose Identify an emerging technology as a team and develop a forecast using engineering science forebode Tools.Examples of such disgorges will be provided. Your team is required to present the progress and results of your project during the scheduled times in class. turn up presentations should not exceed 20 legal proceeding and the final presentation will be limited to 45 minutes. You also will need to submit a tale which should follow TFSC journal guidelines for a journal paper. Your report should include a literary works search justifying the topic and methods used. CASES 1. strategical supply at United computer software Service, David A. Garvin, Lynne C. Levesque, fruit 306002 2. omen the Adoption of a spick-and-span Product, Elie Ofek , Product 505062 AND prognostication the Adoption of E-Books, Elie Ofek, creature Wickersham, Product Number 9-505-063 3. Illinois Superconductor Corp. prognosticate motive for Superconducting Filters, Mohanbir Sawhney, Lisa Damkroger, Greg McGuirk, Julie Milbratz, John Rountree, Product KEL096 READINGS basis to engine room calculate 1. Linstone, H. A. , TFSC 1969-1999. technical prediction and hearty Change, mess 62, numerals 1-2, August- phratry 1999, Pages 1-8. 2. Ayres, R. U. What have we learned? scientific prognostic and complaisant Change, great deal 62, events 1-2, August- folk 1999, Pages 9-12. 3. Martino, J. P. , 30 years of change and stability. technological Forecasting and friendly Change, hoi polloi 62, stretch outs 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 13-18. 4. Porter, A. L. , Tech forecasting an empirical perspective. scientific Forecasting and affectionate Change, bulk 62, materialisations 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 19-28. 5. Linstone , H. A. , The 21st century Everyman as Faust technology, terrorism, and the multiple perspectives approach. expert Forecasting and Social Change, account book 70, materialization 3, bunt 2003, Pages 283-296. applied science Forecasting Techniques 6. Mishra, Somnath, S. G Deshmukh and Prem Vrat, Matching of expert forecasting technique to a technology , proficient Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 69, Issue 1, January 2002, Pages 1-27. 7. Technology proxs depth psychology Methods works Group, Technology futures digest Toward integration of the guinea pig and new methods, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 71, Issue 3, March 2004, Pages 287-303. 8. Silberglitt, R. , Hove, A. , and Shulman, P. Analysis of US energy scenarios Meta-scenarios, pathways, and policy implications. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 70, Issue 4, May 2003, Pages 297-315. 9. Rowe, G. and G. Wright, The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool Issues and analysis, In ternational ledger of Forecasting, Volume 15, Issue 4, October 1999, Pages 353-375. 10. Lena Borjeson, Mattias Hojer, Karl-Henrik Dreborg, Tomas Ekvall and Goran Finnveden, Scenario types and techniques Towards a users guide, Futures, Volume 38, Issue 7, September 2006, Pages 723-739. 11. Winebrake, J. J. , and Creswick, B. P. The future of heat content fueling systems for transportation An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 70, Issue 4, May 2003, Pages 359-384. 12. Sager, B. , Scenarios on the Future of Biotechnology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 68, Issue 2, October 2001, Pages 109-129. 13. Modis, T. , Technological forecasting at the birth market. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 62, Issue 3, November 1999, Pages 173-202. 14. Devezas, Tessaleno C. , Harold A. Linstone and Humberto J.S. Santos, The growth dynamics of the mesh and t he long wave theory, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 72, Issue 8, October 2005, Pages 913-935. 15. Ilonen, Jarmo, Joni-Kristian Kamarainen, Kaisu Puumalainen, Sanna Sundqvist and Heikki Kalviainen, Toward machine-controlled forecasts for diffusion of innovations, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Issue 2, February 2006, Pages 182-198. 16. Martino, Joseph P. , A simile of two composite measures of technology , Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 44, Issue 2, September 1993, Pages 147-159. appear Technology Forecasting Techniques 17. Inman, Oliver Lane, Timothy R. Anderson and Robert R. Harmon, Predicting U. S. jet fighter aircraft introductions from 1944 to 1982 A dogfight between regression and TFDEA, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Issue 9, November 2006, Pages 1178-1187. 18. Anderson, Timothy, Rolf Fare, Shawna Grosskopf, Lane Inman and Xiaoyu Song, Further examination of Moores fairness with data envelopment analysis, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 69, Issue 5, June 2002, Pages 465-477. 19. Barley, S. R. , What washstand We Learn from the History of Technology.Journal of engineering and Technology Management, Volume 15, Issue 4, September 1998, Pages 237-255. 20. Bowonder, B. , T. Miyake, and B. Muralidharan, Predicting the future Lessons from evolutionary theory, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 62, Issues 1-2, August-September 1999, Pages 51-62. 21. Guice, J. , Designing the Future The Culture of refreshed Trends in wisdom and Technology. Research Policy, Volume 28, Issue 1, January 1999, Pages 81-98. 22. Phaal, R. , Farrukh, C. J. P. , and Probert, D. R. , Technology Roadmapping A intend Framework for evolution and Revolution.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 71, Issues 1-2, January-February 2004, Pages 5-26. 23. Kayal, A. , Measuring the Pace of Technological adjoin Implication for Technological Forecastin g. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 60, Issue 3, March 1999, Pages 237-245. 24. T. U. Daim, G. Rueda, H. Martin, and P. Gerdsri, Forecasting Emerging Technologies Use of Bibliometrics and patent of invention Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Issue 8, October 2006, Pages 981-1012. 25. Watts, R. J. and A. L. Porter, Innovation Forecasting.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 56, Issue 1, September 1997, Pages 25-47. SCHEDULE Subjects to be CoveredAssignment/Readings 1/4 Teams Formed 1/11 Introduction to Technology Forecasting Technology Planning Case Study 1 Strategic Planning at United Parcel Service Case set and Presentations Article reciprocation Articles 1-5 1/18UNIVERSITY CLOSED 1/25 Extrapolation by Regression invitee speaker unit Jisun Kim Project Proposal Presentations 2/1 Delphi, Analogy, Scenarios, Environment Monitoring, Growth Curves In Class Exercise Cable TV Diffusion Article Discussion ?Articles 6-16 2/ 8 Case Study 2 Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product Case Preparation and Presentations Project Progress Presentations 2/15 Emerging Technology Forecasting Methods TFDEA Guest Speaker Tim Anderson 2/22 ?Emerging Technology Forecasting Methods Bibliometrics, Patent Searches, Article Discussion? ?Articles 17-25 3/1 Project Results Presentations 3/8 Case Study 3 Illinois Superconductor Corp. Forecasting Demand for Superconducting Filters Case Preparation and Presentations 3/15 Final Reports